I think a little, yeah. They've tried things out on FX before if memory serves and then moved them to Fox proper if the numbers were big enough. I think they're looking at this option as a compromise of sorts to keep the affiliates from having to dump the syndicated re-runs that are so profitable for them and still get Conan on board and possibly run his show both on FX and on the Fox affilliates that are willing to play ball and take a chance on him vs. the re-runs.
The only issue I'd see with this plan is we'd need to know how much cable penetration FX has at this time. If it's in less homes than the highest possible audience for both Dave and Leno's shows, it's not a good deal because there's no way he'll be able to compete, and what Fox wants to do is be able to compete and create a franchise that's Fox exclusive where they'll always have it in that timeslot. It's not that they don't have confidence in Conan, it's that they don't know if the affiliates will give up the assured revenue they already have from the syndicated re-runs and essentially gamble it on a new late night talk show hosted by Conan that would be competing directly with two entrenched, established franchises on other broadcast networks.
I think the FX plan isn't the worst compromise in the world, provided they don't have a much smaller penetration than I think. The landscape of TV is changing and cable networks are starting to compete with their broadcast counterparts more and more, and I really doubt that there are a lot of Nielsen families out there who are without cable, so it could work if they do it this way first. I think the ideal position would be to give the affiliates some sort of guaranteed reimbursement for lost revenues if they start it out on all Fox affiliates and it tanks that let's them break close to even if it doesn't work and possibly let the affiliates who aren't willing to take a chance opt out, then re-run it on FX after midnight.




