Politics!

[ProfessorShutYoMouth]

From White House Warns Against Dropping Health Care As Party Grows Skittish:

But many in the party are skittish about signing on to legislation that has grown politically unpopular. Several House Democrats who spoke to the Huffington Post expressed wariness about the prospect of passing the Senate's bill pro forma. Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.), on Tuesday night, warned that it would not be "fair and prudent" for his colleagues to move forward on health care until the body's newest senator was seated. House Financial Service Committee chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) echoed Webb later in the night.

This thing is dead.

[Berliner]

If there is one thing that most Democratic House reps are, it is easily scared. Double that for the Senate.

This is already psyching them out, and unless the arm twisters in the Democratic party stop dicking around then health care is dead.

Democrats are once again proving their ineptness at the political game. I still have faith in Obama, he didn't win the Presidency by being naive. But they really have to figure out how to neutralize this populist anger that the Republicans have co-opted so handily, and stop trying to promote themselves as the Ambassadors of Bipartisanship.

But the Senate already passed their version. They don't matter anymore.

I am 70 to 80 percent sure that the Senate version will be passed. If they don't they will be in even bigger trouble this fall. The key players realize this.

[Berliner]

http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-treatmen...house-democrat

[ProfessorShutYoMouth]

But the Senate already passed their version. They don't matter anymore.

I am 70 to 80 percent sure that the Senate version will be passed. If they don't they will be in even bigger trouble this fall. The key players realize this.

I sincerely hope you are right, but if there is one thing I learned about the Democrats it is to never overestimate them.

Aside from simply passing it, they have to effectively counter the populist misunderstanding of the bill with relentless spin and messaging of their own. It is amazing to me that the Democrats still haven't figured out how to deal with the bullies of the Republican party...you don't slap a bully, you beat the everloving shit out of them.

In front of as many people as possible.

[ericluxury]

Well, the reason Democrats can't spin effectively is that their most effective and charismatic mouthpieces come from the default position of being against them. Jon Stewart, Rachel Maddow, Olbermann, Huffington, Bill Maher, etc. are the people who have the most access to the most ears and agree with 75%+ of the Democratic agenda and they will turn on Democrats before the fight has started. The enemies of these people are Republican mouthpieces, spineless Democrats, and Corporations (which they can't express in a coherent or logical way and is a weak position of argument when the economy is doing badly) and for the most part all they champion is themselves. (to be fair, I like Jon Stewart but the main thing he does is comedy and thats why his show is basically the soup if it focused only other cable news networks).
Who of those people will see the fight that this health care bill has had to go through (if its passed) and champion it even a little. Stewart, maybe a little, but Maddow, Olbermann, Huffington, Maher and all similiar Democratic mouthpieces will all blame the Democrats for its failings, while congratulating themselves for knowing what to do and how to do it.

[ericluxury]

Also I think there will be tangible benefits to a lot of people if health care passes and a lot of things that will help campaigns. In debates and elections, it will be a position with some strength (Republican didn't want grandma to get medicine cheaply or some shit like that) while not passing it is nothing but weakness. That is as clear as clear to be, which is why Barney Frank's bizarre statements about going back to the table with Olympia Snowe (he said 'the Republicans' but thats what he had to mean) are very odd. Shouldn't the posture be, well if you don't like us, we will pass this fucking thing post-haste since there is only one way to do it and there is no more debate to be had.

[Berliner]

Yeah, I really hope that it is being drilled into the representatives' heads that the losses they would face from voting for it will be much less than the losses they would face from voting against it. That is the clear consensus of all the liberal wonks in DC. Anyway, I don't think the problem ultimately comes from the liberal wing of the Democrats being unable to stomach this, because they would rather take the Senate version than nothing. It probably comes from Stupaks.

No matter what, there will be loses. A lot of them will probably be ousted in November. But maybe they could go out in a blaze of glory?

[dukerayburn]

Shouldn't the posture be, well if you don't like us, we will pass this fucking thing post-haste since there is only one way to do it and there is no more debate to be had.

We basically need the Iraq Surge on Health Care. 2006, a strong public referendum against Republican leadership and the war in Iraq, and they still tossed a hundred thousand more troops into the shit.

Republicans didn't require a Super Majority to do whatever they wanted for eight damn years, why do Democrats seem so lost without it? The race is over, you still have the majority vote. Fucking use it.

If they continue to falter on health care, they'll be taken out of office by the Left and the Right among their constituents, and the people who simply want leaders who can DO THINGS. Hell, at this point, they'll probably still lose plenty of elections. So they need to stop focusing on pre-emptive salvage efforts for their careers and actually leave a legacy of HAVING DONE THINGS.

[ProfessorShutYoMouth]

If they continue to falter on health care, they'll be taken out of office by the Left and the Right among their constituents, and the people who simply want leaders who can DO THINGS.

Exactly.

Even having had this latest lesson served to them in Massachusetts ("Don't take your voters for granted"), Democrats are already talking about abandoning health care reform based on the false premise that "Hey, it's not our Democratic base that matters...they will vote for us, no matter what."

Sad to see "leaders" run so scared, so quickly.

[Berliner]

Fellas:

[nathansmart]

help me out here - what is it

[ProfessorShutYoMouth]

His campaign slogan was "A Night With My Daughters In Exchange For Your Vote!"...he's just making good on that promise.

[dukerayburn]

Is the one in the white sweater single?

[ericluxury]

Assuming that they don't pass the Senate Health bill, as Barney Frank said, and that they wait for Brown to be seated, as Obama said, is there any chance of Health Care Reform of any kind?
It appears that we will now have to wait for the country to be bankrupt.

[Berliner]

Maybe in another 15 years. I honestly do not believe it can go any other way than the House passing the Senate version.

[ProfessorShutYoMouth]

Maybe in another 15 years. I honestly do not believe it can go any other way than the House passing the Senate version.

Yikes.

That's a grim assessment, but true enough. The Democrats are acting like the Republicans will just come to the negotiating table now that they have a new Senator...it is just going to be more of the same anti-government populism, but in overdrive.

What I wonder is why didn't the Democrats include some of the things the Republicans wanted in the first place, tort reform being the one thing I can think of off the top of my head.

Anonymous Senate staffer sez:

The worst is that I can't help but feel like the main emotion people in the caucus are feeling is relief at this turn of events. Now they have a ready excuse for not getting anything done. While I always thought we had the better ideas but the weaker messaging, it feels like somewhere along the line Members internalized a belief that we actually have weaker ideas. They're afraid to actually implement them and face the judgment of the voters. That's the scariest dynamic and what makes me think this will all come crashing down around us in November.

[Berliner]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezr..._stabiliz.html

Hopefully they will calm down enough to realize that they have a sizeable majority in the House, the Presidency, and 59 members in the senate, which is actually one more than they had after the 2008 election.

[RoyalDutchOfDukes]

I got into a political argument with a girl I went to high school with on Facebook last night about healthcare reform. Highlights!:

The Geneva Conventions we signed don't matter because the terrorists didn't sign them too and they chop people's heads off, so it's ok to torture them.

Health care reform is taking away all her rights and she might as well move to Cuba.

The Constitution enumerates a right to limited government.

Canadians (and all other foreigners with any kind of state-run healthcare systems) hate their healthcare system.

Oh and she thinks we're gonna have death panels, even though that stupid bullshit was debunked months ago.

I really, really wish I had stuck to my New Year's resolution of not talking to people about politics anymore.

[Berliner]

I am actually applying to several grad schools in Canada right now. If healthcare dies, I am truly and honestly moving to Canada.

[Berliner]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/us...eficit.html?hp

What a bunch of hypocritesssssssssssssssssssss